2018 House Forecast

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Lite

Keep it simple, please — give me the best forecast you can based on what local and national polls say

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I’ll take the polls, plus all the “fundamentals”: fundraising, past voting in the district, historical trends and more

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Forecasting the race for the House
Published Aug. 16, 2018 at 11:00 AM
7 in 10
Chance Democrats win control (70.4%)

3 in 10
Chance Republicans keep control (29.6%)

AVERAGE
MEDIAN
CURRENTBREAKDOWN
CURRENTBREAKDOWN
Breakdown of seats byparty

Higher
probability
267 D168 R
247 D188 R
227 D208 R
227 R208 D
247 R188 D
80% chance Democrats gain 13 to 55 seats
80% chance Democrats gain 13 to 55 seats
10% chance Democrats gain fewer than 13 seats
10% chance Democrats gain fewer than 13 seats
10% chance Democrats gain more than 55 seats
10% chance Democrats gain more than 55 seats
+55
+32 Democratic seats
AVG. GAIN
+13
Our forecast for every district
The chance of each candidate winning and projected vote share in all 435 House districts

Cartogram
Map
Solid D
≥95% D
Likely D
≥75% D
Lean D
≥60% D
Toss-up
50% nonincumbent party
= one district
District totals by category
189
8
19
10
19
53
137
MAJORITY
Chance of controlling the House
1 in 10
1 in 4
1 in 2
3 in 4
9 in 10
70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
29.6%
NOV. 6
ELECTION DAY
TODAY
AUG. 14, 2018
Seats controlled by each party
157-278
187-248
EVEN
247-188
277-158
227-208
227-208
Popular vote margin
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
R+10
R+5
0
D+5
D+10
D+7.2
D+7.2
KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

How the House has swung historically
The projected swing of our current forecast along with the swing of every House election since 1924

Net advantage
Swing
0
100
200
300 seats
0
100
200
300
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
◄ More Democratic | More Republican ►
COOLIDGE
COOLIDGE
HOOVER
HOOVER
ROOSEVELT
ROOSEVELT
TRUMAN
TRUMAN
EISENHOWER
EISENHOWER
KENNEDY
KENNEDY
JOHNSON
JOHNSON
NIXON
NIXON
FORD
FORD
CARTER
CARTER
REAGAN
REAGAN
H.W. BUSH
H.W. BUSH
CLINTON
CLINTON
W. BUSH
W. BUSH
OBAMA
OBAMA
TRUMP
TRUMP
Most likely outcome
Most likely outcome
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

* For races in which the general election candidates haven’t yet been determined, we’re showing a leading primary candidate until a nominee is picked. Vacant seats are assigned to the party that previously held them for the purposes of seat totals and flips.

Forecast models by Nate Silver. Design and development by Aaron Bycoffe, Rachael Dottle, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Andrei Scheinkman, Gus Wezerek and Julia Wolfe. Research by Andrea Jones-Rooy, Dhrumil Mehta, Mai Nguyen and Nathaniel Rakich. Notice any bugs? Send us an email.

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

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